Oscar Predictions: One More Stab Before Critics Have Their Say

The New York Film Critics Circle will announce their 2011 award-winners later today via Twitter (@NYFCC2011), and, with that, a new dynamic will be brought to this year’s Oscar race — the crucial perspectives of the critics groups. While no doubt having an impact on the shaping of the season, however, the impact of these circles should not be blown out of proportion. The universal critical hailing of David Fincher’s The Social Network, for instance, went a long way towards securing the film’s status as a prime Oscar contender, but, at the end of the day, Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech went home with the major prizes.

The National Board of Review will follow the New Yorkers and announce their winners on Thursday, December 1. And after that, the rest of the major groups will tune in with their input. So I thought it would be useful to chime in with one last stab at things before these organizations have their say. Nothing against the critical input — though the NYFCC’s me-first mentality is growing increasingly grating — but this fresh perspective could (or just as easily could not) wind up being more closely aligned with the Academy’s ultimate sensibilities.

My updated predictions can be found below. Major movements include the bumping up of Martin Scorsese’s Hugo (the reviews are through the roof) in multiple categories, often to the detriment of Tomas Alfredson’s Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, which, for all of its slow-burn intrigue and merit, could prove too quiet and intricate for Academy tastes. We’ll see. To check in with my previous update, click here.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. War Horse
4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Hugo
7. The Tree of Life

Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin, Albert Nobbs, Beginners, Carnage, A Dangerous Method, Drive, 50/50, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, The Ides of March, The Iron Lady, J. Edgar, Like Crazy, Margaret, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Melancholia, Moneyball, My Week with Marilyn, Rampart, Shame, The Skin I Live In, Super 8, Take Shelter, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Tyrannosaur, Warrior, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Win Win, Young Adult

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
2. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
3. Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
4. Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
5. Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)

Other Contenders: Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin), Rodrigo Garcia (Albert Nobbs), Roland Emmerich (Anonymous), Mike Mills (Beginners), Roman Polanski (Carnage), David Cronenberg (A Dangerous Method), Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive), Jonathan Levine (50/50), David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), David Yates (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2), Tate Taylor (The Help), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Phyllida Lloyd (The Iron Lady), Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar), Drake Doremus (Like Crazy), Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Lars von Trier (Melancholia), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Bennett Miller (Moneyball), Simon Curtis (My Week with Marilyn), Oren Moverman (Rampart), Steve McQueen (Shame), Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In), J.J. Abrams (Super 8), Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter), Tomas Alfredson (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Paddy Considine (Tyrannosaur), Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo), Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin), Tom McCarthy (Win Win), Jason Reitman (Young Adult)

BEST ACTOR

1. George Clooney (The Descendants)
2. Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
3. Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
4. Michael Fassbender (Shame)
5. Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)

Other Contenders: Rhys Ifans (Anonymous), Christopher Plummer (Barrymore), Mel Gibson (The Beaver), Ewan McGregor (Beginners), Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method), Ryan Gosling (Drive), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50), Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March), Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar), Anton Yelchin (Like Crazy), Owen Wilson (Midnight in Pairs), Woody Harrelson (Rampart), Antonio Banderas (The Skin I Live In), Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Sean Penn (This Must Be the Place), Peter Mullan (Tyrannosaur), Tom Hardy (Warrior), Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo), Paul Giamatti (Win Win)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis (The Help)
2. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
3. Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
4. Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
5. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

Other Contenders: Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Emma Stone (The Help), Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre), Felicity Jones (Like Crazy), Anna Paquin (Margaret), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia), Charlotte Gainsbourg (Melancholia), Olivia Colman (Tyrannosaur), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
2. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
3. Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
4. Albert Brooks (Drive)
5. Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)

Other Contenders: Christoph Waltz (Carnage), Robert Forster (The Descendants), Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Christopher Plummer (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Ben Kingsley (Hugo), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Paul Giamatti (The Ides of March), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Ides of March), Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady), Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), Kevin Spacey (Margin Call), John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Colin Firth (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Tom Hardy (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Niels Arestrup (War Horse), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Ezra Miller (We Need to Talk About Kevin), John C. Reilly (We Need to Talk About Kevin)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
2. Octavia Spencer (The Help)
3. Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
4. Bérénice Bejo (The Artist)
5. Carey Mulligan (Shame)

Other Contenders: Vanessa Redgrave (Anonymous), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Mia Wasikowska (Albert Nobbs), Mélanie Laurent (Beginners), Jodie Foster (Carnage), Judy Greer (The Descendants), Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Anjelica Huston (50/50), Anna Kendrick (50/50), Robin Wright (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March), Judi Dench (J. Edgar), Marion Cotilard (Midnight in Paris), Jessica Chastain (Take Shelter), Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life), Emily Watson (War Horse), Amy Ryan (Win Win)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)
2. Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)
3. Young Adult (Diablo Cody)
4. The Tree of Life (Terrence Malick)
5. Martha Marcy May Marlene (Sean Durkin)

Other Contenders: Anonymous (John Orloff), Beginners (Mike Mills), Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig), Contagion (Scott Z. Burns), Crazy, Stupid, Love. (Dan Fogelman), 50/50 (Will Reiser), The Iron Lady (Abi Morgan), J. Edgar (Dustin Lance Black), Like Crazy (Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones), Margin Call (J.C. Chandor), Melancholia (Lars von Trier), Rampart (James Ellroy, Oren Moverman), Rango (John Logan), A Separation (Asghar Farhadi), Shame (Steve McQueen, Abi Morgan), Source Code (Ben Ripley), Super 8 (J.J. Abrams), Take Shelter (Jeff Nichols), Warrior (Cliff Dorfman, Gavin O’Connor, Anthony Tambakis), W.E. (Alek Keshishian, Madonna), Win Win (Thomas McCarthy, Joe Tibani)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Descendants (Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash)
2. War Horse (Richard Curtis, Lee Hall)
3. Moneyball (Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian)
4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Eric Roth)
5. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan)

Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin (Joe Cornish, Steven Moffat, Edgar Wright), Albert Nobbs (John Banville, Glenn Close), Carnage (Roman Polanski, Yasmina Reza), Coriolanus (John Logan), A Dangerous Method (Christopher Hampton), Drive (Hossein Amini), The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Steven Zaillian), The Help (Tate Taylor), Hugo (John Logan), The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov), My Week with Marilyn (Adrian Hodges), The Skin I Live In (Pedro Almodovar), We Bought a Zoo (Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna), We Need to Talk About Kevin (Rory Kinnear, Lynne Ramsay)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. War Horse (Janusz Kaminski)
2. The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki)
3. The Artist (Guillame Schiffman)
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth)
5. Hugo (Robert Richardson)

Other Contenders: Albert Nobbs (Michael McDonough), Anonymous (Anna Foerster), Contagion (Peter Andrews), A Dangerous Method (Peter Suschitzky), Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Chris Menges), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Eduardo Serra), The Ides of March (Phedon Papamichael), Jane Eyre (Adriano Goldman), J. Edgar (Tom Stern), Midnight in Paris (Johanne Debas, Darius Khondji), Moneyball (Wally Pfister), Super 8 (Larry Fong), Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Hoyte Van Hoytema), Warrior (Masanobu Takayanagi), Wuthering Heights (Robbie Ryan)

BEST ART DIRECTION

1. Hugo
2. The Artist
3. War Horse
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
5. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Other Contenders: Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, The Help, Immortals, The Iron Lady, Jane Eyre, J. Edgar, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Super 8, The Tree of Life, Water for Elephants, W.E., X-Men: First Class

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. Jane Eyre
4. War Horse
5. W.E.

Other Contenders: Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, The Conspirator, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, Immortals, The Iron Lady, J. Edgar, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Tree of Life, Water for Elephants, X-Men: First Class

BEST FILM EDITING

1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Hugo

Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin, Contagion, A Dangerous Method, The Descendants, Drive, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, The Ides of March, J. Edgar, Moneyball, Super 8, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Tree of Life, Warrior, Young Adult

BEST MAKEUP

1. J. Edgar
2. The Iron Lady
3. The Artist

Other Contenders: Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, Green Lantern, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Jane Eyre, My Week with Marilyn, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, War Horse, X-Men: First Class

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. The Adventures of Tintin
4. Hugo
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Other Contenders: Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, The Ides of March, Jane Eyre, Moneyball, My Week with Marilyn, One Day, Rango, Super 8, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Tree of Life, We Need to Talk About Kevin, X-Men: First Class

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. The Adventures of Tintin
2. Super 8
3. War Horse
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Other Contenders: Battle: Los Angeles, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cars 2, Fast Five, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Melancholia, Rango, Real Steel, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Tree of Life, X-Men: First Class

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. The Adventures of Tintin
2. Super 8
3. War Horse
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. The Tree of Life

Other Contenders: The Artist, Battle: Los Angeles, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cars 2, Fast Five, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Melancholia, Rango, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, X-Men: First Class

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
3. Hugo
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. The Tree of Life

Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin, Anonymous, Battle: Los Angeles, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cowboys & Aliens, Fast Five, Green Lantern, Immortals, Melancholia, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Rango, Real Steel, Super 8, Thor, War Horse, X-Men: First Class

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Rango
2. Arthur Christmas
3. Cars 2
4. The Adventures of Tintin
5. Kung Fu Panda 2

Other Contenders: Chico and Rita, Happy Feet 2, Puss in Boots, Rio, Winnie the Pooh, Wrinkles

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Project Nim
2. Pina
3. Hell and Back Again
4. Bill Cunningham New York
5. We Were Here

Other Contenders: Battle for Brooklyn, Buck, If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front, Jane’s Journey, The Loving Story, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Semper Fi: Always Faithful, Sing Your Song, Undefeated, Under Fire: Journalists in Combat

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. A Separation (Iran)
2. In Darkness (Poland)
3. Le Havre (Finland)
4. Footnote (Israel)
5. Miss Bala (Mexico)

Other Contenders: Bullhead (Belgium), Declaration of War (France), The Flowers of War (China), Monsieur Lazhar (Canada), Once Upon a Time in Anatolia (Turkey), Pina (Germany), A Simple Life (Hong Kong), Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG — No predictions yet

SHORT FILM CATEGORIES — No predictions yet