Having seen a handful of films at this year’s New York Film Festival — including, among others, Steve McQueen’s Shame, Alexander Payne’s The Descendants, and Michel Hazanavicius’ The Artist — I feel that my perspective of this year’s race, in many ways, has cleared up. Though I may be clouded by my love of the film, I nevertheless think that Michael Fassbender is en route to a Best Actor nod for Shame. His work in that movie is as naked and intimate and harrowing as the film itself — something that voters will look at and be unable, I would imagine, to ignore. I think Carey Mulligan’s stripped-down supporting turn could strike a similar chord, but, unlike Fassbender, she’s already been Academy-certified for An Education.
(The current issue for Fassbender, by the way, will be figuring out which contender he can overstep, as the current Best Actor five looks pretty legitimate. At the moment, I’m putting my money on Leonardo DiCaprio bowing out of contention. Even though I think J. Edgar looks impressive, it’s still been a good while since Eastwood has had a big-time Oscar juggernaut. I know that Morgan Freeman was nominated despite the dialed-down response to Invictus, but I just suspect that voters will be more likely to want to back the up-and-coming Fassbender, rather than the already-recognized DiCaprio. Just a hunch.)
With respect to The Descendants, it feels just as much of a contender as it’s been hailed to be. It’s been a long wait, of course, since Payne’s last endeavor, but boy does he deliver. It’s one of the year’s best, to be honest, and George Clooney’s lead performance, sure to be Oscar-nominated, is truly a marvel. And, as Clooney’s daughter, Shailene Woodley’s work, which will surely put her in Best Supporting Actress consideration, is simply impeccable. The whole cast, for that matter, is in peak form, and the adapted screenplay, co-written by Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash, could very well take home an Oscar.
I’m less enthusiastic, from a personal perspective, about The Artist, but it’s something that’s just bound to play well for Academy voters. I’m happy to sing the praises of Jean Dujardin’s infectiously endearing lead performance, as well as Hazanavicius’ meticulous direction, but it’s the director’s work on the page that really holds the film back. It diligently masquerades as a clever, loving homage to cinema — which is precisely why it’s going to be adored — while, in the end, sacrificing the complexity of its own characters and storyline in the process.
I’m also letting up on my awards expectations for Jason Reitman’s Young Adult at the moment. It’s unwise, of course, to try and judge the film simply from the trailer, but it does look as if it really has that Diablo Cody vibe going for it. My feeling is that, if the film delivers on a tonality that’s akin to Juno, the film could be overlooked because of its similarity. Up in the Air, after all, was a vastly different effort for Reitman. And speaking of trailers, another recent debut that caught my eye was that of Stephen Daldry’s Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. I hate to create unreachable expectations, but that thing just has the feel of an awards bar-setter to me.
Another key film I saw here in New York was Simon Curtis’ My Week with Marilyn, which I had a hard time not adoring for its fluffy, throwback vibe and Michelle Williams’ alluringly complex turn as the title character. She’s bound to get nominated and, looking at the current crop of Best Actress contenders, it’s certainly feasible that she could even wind up the frontrunner. Most corners are currently shouting the likelihood of Viola Davis’ chances for The Help, but Williams’ screen resume, currently being filled with many more noteworthy leading turns, could help her cause quite a bit.
And while we’re on the subject of The Help, you might’ve noticed that I’ve yet to include the film in my Best Picture projections so far. That’s not to say that I’m unaware of the success the film has had, critically and especially commercially. But I have a strong inkling that it’s the kind of safe, middle-of-the-road entertainment that will be unlikely to score enough number-one votes from the Academy. I mean, let’s be honest — if voters see enough of the films in contention, there’s got to be something that will register for them more profoundly than The Help, right?
Anyways, my updated predictions, as usual, can be found below, as well as in the sidebar.
BEST PICTURE
Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, Beginners, Carnage, A Dangerous Method, Drive, 50/50, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, Hugo, The Iron Lady, Like Crazy, Margaret, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Melancholia, Moneyball, My Week with Marilyn, Rampart, The Rum Diary, Shame, The Skin I Live In, Super 8, Take Shelter, Take This Waltz, Tyrannosaur, Warrior, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Win Win, Young Adult
BEST DIRECTOR
Other Contenders: Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn), Rodrigo Garcia (Albert Nobbs), Roland Emmerich (Anonymous), Mike Mills (Beginners), Roman Polanski (Carnage), David Cronenberg (A Dangerous Method), Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive), Jonathan Levine (50/50), David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), David Yates (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2), Tate Taylor (The Help), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Phyllida Lloyd (The Iron Lady), Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar), Drake Doremus (Like Crazy), Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Lars von Trier (Melancholia), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Bennett Miller (Moneyball), Simon Curtis (My Week with Marilyn), Oren Moverman (Rampart), Bruce Robinson (The Rum Diary), Steve McQueen (Shame), Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In), J.J. Abrams (Super 8), Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter), Sarah Polley (Take This Waltz), Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life), Paddy Considine (Tyrannosaur), Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo), Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin), Tom McCarthy (Win Win), Jason Reitman (Young Adult)
BEST ACTOR
Other Contenders: Rhys Ifans (Anonymous), Christopher Plummer (Barrymore), Mel Gibson (The Beaver), Ewan McGregor (Beginners), Christoph Waltz (Carnage), Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method), Ryan Gosling (Drive), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50), Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Asa Butterfield (Hugo), Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March), Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar), Anton Yelchin (Like Crazy), Owen Wilson (Midnight in Pairs), Woody Harrelson (Rampart), Johnny Depp (The Rum Diary), Antonio Banderas (The Skin I Live In), Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Sean Penn (This Must Be the Place), Peter Mullan (Tyrannosaur), Tom Hardy (Warrior), Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo), Paul Giamatti (Win Win)
BEST ACTRESS
Other Contenders: Jodie Foster (Carnage), Kate Winslet (Carnage), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Emma Stone (The Help), Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre), Felicity Jones (Like Crazy), Anna Paquin (Margaret), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia), Charlotte Gainsbourg (Melancholia), Robin Wright (Rampart), Olivia Colman (Tyrannosaur), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Other Contenders: Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method), Seth Rogen (50/50), Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Christopher Plummer (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Ben Kingsley (Hugo), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Paul Giamatti (The Ides of March), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Ides of March), Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady), Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Moneyball), Steve Buscemi (Rampart), Richard Jenkins (The Rum Diary), Seth Rogen (Take This Waltz), Colin Firth (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Tom Hardy (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life), Niels Arestrup (War Horse), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Ezra Miller (We Need to Talk About Kevin), John C. Reilly (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Other Contenders: Vanessa Redgrave (Anonymous), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Mia Wasikowska (Albert Nobbs), Bérénice Bejo, (The Artist), Mélanie Laurent (Beginners), Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Anjelica Huston (50/50), Anna Kendrick (50/50), Robin Wright (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Chloe Moretz (Hugo), Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March), Judi Dench (J. Edgar), Naomi Watts (J. Edgar), Marion Cotilard (Midnight in Paris), Amber Heard (The Rum Diary), Jessica Chastain (Take Shelter), Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life), Emily Watson (War Horse), Elle Fanning (We Bought a Zoo), Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo), Amy Ryan (Win Win)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Other Contenders: Anonymous (John Orloff), The Beaverr (Kyle Killen), Beginners (Mike Mills), Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig), Crazy, Stupid, Love. (Dan Fogelman), The Iron Lady (Abi Morgan), Like Crazy (Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones), Martha Marcy May Marlene (Sean Durkin), Melancholia (Lars von Trier), Rampart (James Ellroy, Oren Moverman), Rango (John Logan), Shame (Steve McQueen, Abi Morgan), Source Code (Ben Ripley), Super 8 (J.J. Abrams), Take Shelter (Jeff Nichols), Take This Waltz (Sarah Polley), The Tree of Life (Terrence Malick), Warrior (Cliff Dorfman, Gavin O’Connor, Anthony Tambakis), W.E. (Alek Keshishian, Madonna), Win Win (Thomas McCarthy, Joe Tibani)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn (Joe Cornish, Steven Moffat, Edgar Wright), Albert Nobbs (John Banville, Glenn Close), Carnage (Roman Polanski, Yasmina Reza), Coriolanus (John Logan), A Dangerous Method (Christopher Hampton), Drive (Hossein Amini), The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Steven Zaillian), The Help (Tate Taylor), Hugo (John Logan), The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov), My Week with Marilyn (Adrian Hodges), The Rum Diary (Bruce Robinson), The Skin I Live In (Pedro Almodovar), We Bought a Zoo (Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna), We Need to Talk About Kevin (Rory Kinnear, Lynne Ramsay)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Other Contenders: Albert Nobbs (Michael McDonough), Contagion (Peter Andrews), A Dangerous Method (Peter Suschitzky), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Eduardo Serra), Hugo (Robert Richardson), The Ides of March (Phedon Papamichael), Jane Eyre (Adriano Goldman), J. Edgar (Tom Stern), Midnight in Paris (Johanne Debas, Darius Khondji), Moneyball (Wally Pfister), Super 8 (Larry Fong), Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Hoyte Van Hoytema), Warrior (Masanobu Takayanagi), Wuthering Heights (Robbie Ryan)
BEST ART DIRECTION
Other Contenders: Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, The Help, The Iron Lady, Jane Eyre, J. Edgar, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Super 8, The Tree of Life, Water for Elephants, W.E., X-Men: First Class
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Other Contenders: Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, The Conspirator, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, The Iron Lady, J. Edgar, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, The Tree of Life, Water for Elephants, X-Men: First Class
BEST FILM EDITING
Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Contagion, A Dangerous Method, The Descendants, Drive, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March, J. Edgar, Moneyball, Super 8, The Tree of Life, Warrior, Young Adult
BEST MAKEUP
Other Contenders: Anonymous, The Artist, Captain America: The First Avenger, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Jane Eyre, My Week with Marilyn, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, War Horse, X-Men: First Class
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Other Contenders: Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, Hugo, Jane Eyre, Moneyball, My Week with Marilyn, One Day, Rango, Super 8, The Tree of Life, We Need to Talk About Kevin, X-Men: First Class
BEST SOUND EDITING
Other Contenders: Battle: Los Angeles, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cars 2, Fast Five, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Melancholia, Rango, Real Steel, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Tree of Life, X-Men: First Class
BEST SOUND MIXING
Other Contenders: Battle: Los Angeles, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cars 2, Fast Five, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Melancholia, Rango, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, X-Men: First Class
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Battle: Los Angeles, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cowboys & Aliens, Fast Five, Green Lantern, Hugo, Melancholia, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Rango, Real Steel, Thor, War Horse, X-Men: First Class
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Other Contenders: Arthur Christmas, Happy Feet 2, Rio, Winnie the Pooh
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Other Contenders: Bobby Fischer Against the World, Buck, Hell and Back Again, If a Tree Falls, Life in a Day, Magic Trip
BEST ORIGINAL SONG — No predictions yet
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM — No predictions yet
SHORT FILM CATEGORIES — No predictions yet