Back in early March, I put together a preliminary set of Oscar predictions for the impending 2011-2012 awards season. Most of the films that made their way into my charts have still yet to be released theatrically, but trailers have debuted for a good amount of the primary contenders, and along with the building festival buzz surrounding Toronto, Venice, and the other outlets — not to mention what we learned earlier this year at Cannes — there’s plenty more information to go on at the moment than what I was working with earlier in the year. So let’s call these predictions a sort-of pre-festival round-up — undoubtedly, the aforementioned fests will clear up the awards picture even more, but as you may have guessed from my early-year predictions, I like trying to sort things out ahead of the game and just see where my gut takes me.
One film I thought was going to be a major Oscar player — because of the impressive pedigree in front of and behind the camera, as well as the credible David Nicholls source material — was Lone Scherfig’s One Day, but most early reviews haven’t been too kind to the film. Even if it does earn a healthy box-office take, which is quite likely, it’ll be nearly impossible to shake off the negative critical reception.
From the year’s first half, Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris and Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life seem to be the most legitimate Oscar prospects. (I detailed my thoughts on each of their chances here and here.) But, as should be the case at this time of the year, the majority of the prestige titles haven’t been seen — Steven Spielberg’s War Horse, Clint Eastwood’s J. Edgar, Tomas Alfredson’s Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, and Bennett Miller’s Moneyball. Efforts from two of the best comedy-dramatists working today — Alexander Payne’s The Descendants and Jason Reitman’s Young Adult — also seem to fit the bill for Oscar gold.
But enough of the speculating. Let’s get down to it. As I did at the start of last year’s predictions, I won’t be ordering the contenders just yet. But I will, for the first time, be adding in projections for the technical categories, so it should be interesting to see how I fare in those departments. I’ve also bolded certain selections in the “Other Contenders” section of each category — these are the ones that I think have the best chance of breaking through and earning nominations. Take a look below and share your thoughts.
BEST PICTURE
Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, Beginners, Carnage, A Dangerous Method, Drive, 50/50, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, Hugo, The Iron Lady, Like Crazy, Margaret, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Melancholia, My Week with Marilyn, Rampart, The Rum Diary, Shame, The Skin I Live In, Super 8, Take Shelter, Take This Waltz, Tyrannosaur, Warrior, W.E., We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Win Win
BEST DIRECTOR
Other Contenders: Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn), Rodrigo Garcia (Albert Nobbs), Roland Emmerich (Anonymous), Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Mike Mills (Beginners), Roman Polanski (Carnage), David Cronenberg (A Dangerous Method), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive), Jonathan Levine (50/50), Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), David Yates (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2), Tate Taylor (The Help), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Phyllida Lloyd (The Iron Lady), Drake Doremus (Like Crazy), Kenneth Lonergan (Margaret), Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Lars von Trier (Melancholia), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Bennett Miller (Moneyball), Simon Curtis (My Week with Marilyn), Oren Moverman (Rampart), Bruce Robinson (The Rum Diary), Steve McQueen (Shame), Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In), J.J. Abrams (Super 8), Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter), Sarah Polley (Take This Waltz), Paddy Considine (Tyrannosaur), Gavin O’Connor (Warrior), Madonna (W.E.), Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo), Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin), Tom McCarthy (Win Win), Jason Reitman (Young Adult)
BEST ACTOR
Other Contenders: Rhys Ifans (Anonymous), Mel Gibson (The Beaver), Ewan McGregor (Beginners), Christoph Waltz (Carnage), Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method), Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method), Ryan Gosling (Drive), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50), Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Asa Butterfield (Hugo), Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March), Anton Yelchin (Like Crazy), Owen Wilson (Midnight in Pairs), Woody Harrelson (Rampart), Johnny Depp (The Rum Diary), Michael Fassbender (Shame), Antonio Banderas (The Skin I Live In), Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Sean Penn (This Must Be the Place), Peter Mullan (Tyrannosaur), Tom Hardy (Warrior), Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo), Paul Giamatti (Win Win)
BEST ACTRESS
Other Contenders: Jodie Foster (Carnage), Kate Winslet (Carnage), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Viola Davis (The Help), Emma Stone (The Help), Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre), Anna Paquin (Margaret), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia), Charlotte Gainsbourg (Melancholia), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn), Robin Wright (Rampart), Carey Mulligan (Shame), Olivia Colman (Tyrannosaur), Abbie Cornish (W.E.), Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Other Contenders: Vincent Cassel (A Dangerous Method), Seth Rogen (50/50), Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Christopher Plummer (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Ben Kingsley (Hugo), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Paul Giamatti (The Ides of March), Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady), Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Moneyball), Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Steve Buscemi (Rampart), Richard Jenkins (The Rum Diary), Seth Rogen (Take This Waltz), Colin Firth (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life), Niels Arestrup (War Horse), Ezra Miller (We Need to Talk About Kevin), John C. Reilly (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Other Contenders: Vanessa Redgrave (Anonymous), Mia Wasikowska (Albert Nobbs), Mélanie Laurent (Beginners), Carey Mulligan (Drive), Anjelica Huston (50/50), Anna Kendrick (50/50), Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Robin Wright (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Bryce Dallas Howard (The Help), Chloe Moretz (Hugo), Judi Dench (J. Edgar), Naomi Watts (J. Edgar), Charlotte Rampling (Melancholia), Marion Cotilard (Midnight in Paris), Amber Heard (The Rum Diary), Jessica Chastain (Take Shelter), Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life), Emily Watson (War Horse), Warrior, Andrea Riseborough (W.E.), Elle Fanning (We Bought a Zoo), Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo), Amy Ryan (Win Win)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Other Contenders: Anonymous (John Orloff), The Beaverr (Kyle Killen), Beginners (Mike Mills), Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig), Crazy, Stupid, Love. (Dan Fogelman), The Iron Lady (Abi Morgan), Like Crazy (Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones), Martha Marcy May Marlene (Sean Durkin), Melancholia (Lars von Trier), Rampart (James Ellroy, Oren Moverman), Rango (John Logan), Shame (Steve McQueen, Abi Morgan), Source Code (Ben Ripley), Super 8 (J.J. Abrams), Take Shelter (Jeff Nichols), Take This Waltz (Sarah Polley), The Tree of Life (Terrence Malick), Warrior (Cliff Dorfman, Gavin O’Connor, Anthony Tambakis), W.E. (Alek Keshishian, Madonna), Win Win (Thomas McCarthy, Joe Tibani)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn (Joe Cornish, Steven Moffat, Edgar Wright), Albert Nobbs (John Banville, Glenn Close), Carnage (Roman Polanski, Yasmina Reza), Coriolanus (John Logan), A Dangerous Method (Christopher Hampton), Drive (Hossein Amini), Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Eric Roth), The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Steven Zaillian), The Help (Tate Taylor), Hugo (John Logan), My Week with Marilyn (Adrian Hodges), The Rum Diary (Bruce Robinson), The Skin I Live In (Pedro Almodovar), We Bought a Zoo (Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna), We Need to Talk About Kevin (Rory Kinnear, Lynne Ramsay)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Other Contenders: Albert Nobbs (Michael McDonough), Contagion (Peter Andrews), A Dangerous Method (Peter Suschitzky), Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Chris Menges), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Eduardo Serra), Hugo (Robert Richardson), The Ides of March (Phedon Papamichael), Jane Eyre (Adriano Goldman), J. Edgar (Tom Stern), Midnight in Paris (Johanne Debas, Darius Khondji), Moneyball (Wally Pfister), Super 8 (Larry Fong), Warrior (Masanobu Takayanagi)
BEST ART DIRECTION
Other Contenders: Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, The Help, The Iron Lady, Jane Eyre, J. Edgar, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Super 8, The Tree of Life, Water for Elephants, W.E., X-Men: First Class
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Other Contenders: Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, The Conspirator, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, The Iron Lady, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, The Tree of Life, Water for Elephants, W.E., X-Men: First Class
BEST FILM EDITING
Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Contagion, A Dangerous Method, The Descendants, Drive, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, Hugo, J. Edgar, Moneyball, Super 8, The Tree of Life, Warrior, Young Adult
BEST MAKEUP
Other Contenders: Anonymous, The Artist, Captain America: The First Avenger, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Jane Eyre, My Week with Marilyn, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, War Horse, X-Men: First Class
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Other Contenders: Anonymous, Captain America: The First Avenger, Coriolanus, A Dangerous Method, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, Hugo, Jane Eyre, Moneyball, My Week with Marilyn, One Day, Rango, Super 8, The Tree of Life, We Need to Talk About Kevin, X-Men: First Class
BEST SOUND EDITING
Other Contenders: Battle: Los Angeles, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cars 2, Fast Five, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Melancholia, Rango, Real Steel, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Tree of Life, X-Men: First Class
BEST SOUND MIXING
Other Contenders: Battle: Los Angeles, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cars 2, Fast Five, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Hugo, Melancholia, Rango, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, X-Men: First Class
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Battle: Los Angeles, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cowboys & Aliens, Fast Five, Green Lantern, Hugo, Melancholia, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Rango, Real Steel, Thor, War Horse, X-Men: First Class
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Other Contenders: Bobby Fischer Against the World, Buck, Hell and Back Again, If a Tree Falls, Life in a Day, Magic Trip
BEST ORIGINAL SONG — No predictions yet
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM — No predictions yet
SHORT FILM CATEGORIES — No predictions yet
on March 21, 2012 at 12:37 pm
I’m tired of some people binsahg Close’s performance. Have they SEEN IT? Do they GET IT? Probably not. It’s a masterful performance that’s true acting at its finest. If some people think it’s boring, plain, simplistic, or whatever, they’re not thinking deep enough. She made it look easy, but pulling off the nuances and delicate touches that she did takes perfection.I do agree that Swinton should’ve been nominated though, but NOT over Close. Are people just getting closed–minded or too superficial or what? It’s not always about the big stuff Sometimes the finer, quieter details in life make a HUGE difference.